company news about high-purity quartz sand industry's structure, purity standard, technological obstacles and application scope (5)

4. Supply and demand are expected to maintain a tight balance, and there is still room for price improvement.

Quartz crucible is a consumable for pulling single crystal silicon

Quartz crucible: It is a key component of the photovoltaic single crystal furnace and a consumable vessel for drawing large-diameter single crystal silicon. It is mainly used to contain molten silicon and make crystal rods required for subsequent processes. From 1978 to 1988, my country's quartz products such as arc quartz crucibles, high-purity coated crucibles, quartz glass for lasers, and high-purity high-temperature-resistant quartz glass tubes were developed and mass-produced. From 1989 to 2000, this stage mainly achieved nationalization based on the introduction and absorption of advanced foreign technologies. After 2000, with technological advancement, the crucible size has developed from 12 inches to 32 inches, and a few companies have reached 40 inches.

The quartz crucible is divided into three layers: inner, middle and outer. The middle and inner layers account for about 30%-40%.

Crucible structure: Quartz crucible is divided into outer layer (opaque layer) and middle inner layer (vacuum transparent layer). The outer layer (opaque layer) contains a large number of bubbles inside, which is heated evenly and has a good thermal insulation effect; the middle and inner layer (transparent layer) is evenly dense and has a smooth surface, which can enhance the strength of the crucible (resist deformation) and reduce the temperature of the inner surface (prevent devitrification). ). According to the different formulas of each crucible manufacturer, the proportion of sand in the middle and inner layers ranges from 30% to 40%.

The inner layer of the quartz crucible has higher requirements for high-purity quartz sand, low aluminum, low alkali, and anti-crystallization.

The inner layer of the quartz crucible has higher requirements for high-purity quartz sand, low aluminum, low alkali, and anti-crystallization. The innermost surface layer of the crucible refers to the 1-2mm part of the transparent layer closest to the inner surface. The mechanism of the crucible's effect on the silicon liquid is that the inner surface in contact with the silicon liquid continues to melt into the silicon liquid, and as the microbubbles in the transparent layer continue to grow, the bubbles near the innermost surface burst, and the silicon The liquid releases quartz microparticles and microbubbles. These impurities will flow through the entire silicon melt with the silicon liquid in the form of micro-particles and micro-bubbles, directly affecting the crystallization of silicon (whole rod rate, crystallization rate, heating time, direct processing cost, etc.) and single crystal The quality of the silicon (perforated sheets, black chips, etc.).

Quartz crucibles are enlarged in size and their lifespan is continuously improved

The size of the quartz crucible is enlarged: According to the prospectus of Oujing Technology, a single 28-inch single crystal crucible weighs more than 40kg. With the trend of large-scale silicon wafers, the size of quartz crucibles continues to increase, and the weight also increases accordingly. At the same time, taking into account the differences in crucible thickness, height, etc. under the same size, we estimate that the weight of the 32-inch crucible is about 70-80kg, and the weight of the 36-inch crucible is about 90-100kg.

Increase in global installed capacity + increase in N-type proportion drive rapid growth in demand

The proportion of N-type silicon wafers has increased: N-type monocrystalline cells are more efficient, and the proportion is expected to increase to 50% in 2030. N-type silicon wafers have higher purity requirements for polycrystalline silicon raw materials and some auxiliary materials. N-type silicon wafers need to replace quartz crucibles more frequently, resulting in a higher demand for high-purity quartz sand. Therefore, in addition to the increase in the total volume of photovoltaic downstream, structural upgrades are expected to contribute to the growth of the high-purity quartz sand industry.

The global demand for high-purity quartz sand from 2024 to 2026 is estimated to be 62,000, 82,000, and 99,000 tons

We estimate that the global photovoltaic installed capacity from 2024 to 2026 will be 240, 300, and 375GW; the service life of the crucible is 380, 400, and 400 hours; the average weight of a single crucible under the trend of large-scale is 80, 90, and 90kg; high-purity quartz sand manufacturing single crystal crucible The loss coefficient is 0.8; the demand for sand in the middle and inner layers accounts for 40%, and the demand for sand in the outer layer accounts for 60%.

In 2024-2026, industry supply and demand will maintain a tight balance, and prices are expected to continue to increase.

The supply and demand of high-purity quartz sand is expected to maintain a tight balance from 2024 to 2026. It is estimated that the demand for high-purity quartz sand from 2024 to 2026 will be approximately 62,000, 82,000, and 99,000 tons, and the supply will be approximately 60,000, 82,000, and 98,000 tons, with a supply-demand gap of -0.2, -0.1, and -0.1 million tons.

Quartz share product prices are expected to continue to increase. On the one hand, under the tight balance between supply and demand in the industry, the overall average price of the industry has increased; on the other hand, the proportion of inner sand in quartz shares is expected to gradually increase, and the average price of middle and inner sand is higher, which is expected to drive the overall average price to increase.